VietNam Holding sees opportunity from Vietnam market reclassification

10 hours ago

VietNam Holding Limited (VNH) Follow | VNH said Vietnam’s move to FTSE Russell Secondary Emerging Market status provides a strong backdrop as the investment company enters its third decade, despite a year of relative underperformance for its portfolio.

For the year ended 30 June 2026, VietNam Holding’s net asset value (NAV) per share increased 4.5%, while its share price rose 4.7%. This compared with a 32.4% rise in the Vietnam All Share Index, with the company attributing much of the gap to an unusually concentrated market rally led by Vingroup and Vinhomes.

Vingroup shares climbed 356.9% during the year and Vinhomes gained 104.0%, driven largely by Vietnam’s more than 12 million domestic retail investors. Meanwhile, foreign investors remained net sellers, while many of the banks, retailers and industrial businesses held by VietNam Holding delivered more modest returns despite resilient earnings growth.

The portfolio was valued at about 11.9 times forecast 2026 earnings at the year end. Over the past five years, the company has delivered compound annual NAV growth of 2.6% after fees and expenses.

Vietnam’s economic backdrop remained supportive, with GDP growing 8.2% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, supported by exports, foreign direct investment and infrastructure spending.

FTSE Russell confirmed Vietnam’s reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market status in April, with the change taking effect on 21 September 2026. Analysts estimate the move could attract USD 5-10 billion of foreign capital from active and passive funds.

During the year, VietNam Holding also marked its 20th anniversary. Over that period, Vietnam’s equity market capitalisation has increased from around USD 300 million to more than USD 300 billion, while daily trading liquidity has risen from around USD 1 million to about USD 1 billion.

The company continued measures aimed at managing its discount to NAV. Shareholders redeemed about 17.9% of shares through the September 2025 redemption window, while the company repurchased 801,410 shares at an average discount of 8.3%. The discount to NAV ended the year at 10.2%.

Looking ahead, the board highlighted Vietnam’s FTSE Russell upgrade, forecast corporate earnings growth of around 20% in 2026, easing inflation, supportive monetary policy and the government’s Doi Moi 2.0 reform programme as potential drivers.

View from Vox

Vietnam’s FTSE Russell upgrade could help broaden foreign investor participation and deepen market liquidity. For VietNam Holding, the key opportunity is that a wider market rally may better reward the portfolio’s focus on earnings growth, governance and valuation after a year dominated by a small number of large-cap stocks.

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