Research on Railtown Capital Corp (RAIL) from Sidoti & Company
While the loss of RAIL's 1,285 tank car retrofit order reduces earnings visibility, we forecast improved financial performance over the next two years, supported by a recovery in industry railcar deliveries and recent cost reduction efforts. We lower our 2026 and 2027 estimates to reflect the loss of the tank car retrofit order. For 2026, we estimate 3,200 deliveries (guidance is 3,100-3,300 units), $386.3 million in revenue ($370-$410 million), and about $17 million in adjusted EBITDA ($15-$19 million). Improving industry fundamentals will support a recovery in 2027, in our view, with industry deliveries expected to rebound from 25,000 units in 2026 back toward normalized replacement level demand of 35,000-40,000 units annually. We estimate RAIL will deliver about 4,000 freight cars in 2027 and 4,500 units in 2028, reflecting a stable 13% market share. We believe RAIL is well positioned to participate in the industry's recovery. RAIL's high-margin Aftermarket business (about 30% gross margin) is a key growth driver that will help buffer cyclical, and sometimes volatile, new railcar sales. The company announced another Aftermarket acquisition yesterday. With the anticipated freight rebound and RAIL's cost reductions, we think the recent pullback in the stock price represents an attractive entry point for investors. We expect RAIL will continue to repay debt and pursue acquisitions in the Aftermarkets segment. Repayment of the expensive but manageable debt (a 2028 Term loan) will reduce interest expense and enable a future refinancing (2H:27). We lower our price target to $10 (from $13), based on a 17x multiple applied to our newly introduced 2028 EPS estimate of $0.56 (was 17x our previous 2027 EPS estimate of $0.75). Our moderate risk rating balances RAIL's leaner operating footprint with key customer relationships and economic sensitivity.
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